Elections are used by citizens to support or punish the party in power. Morena starts with an advantage, but the campaign that will define who will be the next governor of the most populous state in the country is missing.
On January 4, the electoral process that will renew governor on Sunday, June 4, formally began. Delfina Gomez is emerging as the candidate of Morena, and probably of an alliance with El Verde and PT, Alejandra Del Moral as the candidate of the PRI and of an alliance with PAN and PRD; and finally Juan Zepeda as the MC candidate.
One of the main questions is whether there will be alternation or continuity in the government of the most populous state in the country, which together with Coahuila have not experienced political change since 1929, the year the PNR was founded, the direct predecessor of the PRI. Together with Durango (in coalition) they are the only states that it governs out of a total of 32, in such a way that it is crucial for its future, and as a precedent for the presidential election.
The polls confirm a wide advantage of Morena, in a ratio of at least 2 to 1 over its adversaries, so that the scenario of electoral coalitions is the one that can generate a competitive contest.
The President’s party seems dominant at the beginning of the contest, since it has the support of the official narrative of combating corruption and austerity as the main banners, and the pattern of punishing the PRI when it is the party in government; However, if the PAN, PRI and PRD coalition manage to motivate the participation of electoral segments that are dissatisfied and disillusioned with insecurity, the economy and the results of the federal government, the election can be closed.
The campaign will begin on April 3 and ends on May 31, a fundamental period to persuade almost 12.5 million Mexicans to vote. The 2017 Governor’s election registered 53% participation, and the last 2021 federal election registered 54%. If the PAN, PRI and PRD coalition intends to be competitive, it will have to encourage voter turnout above the average of the last elections, and thus generate a scenario similar to the 2021 election, in which they won by a narrow margin.
The composition of the Mexican census, like that of the country, is predominantly young, since 4 out of 10 voters are between 18 and 34 years of age. The great challenge will be to attract to vote the younger and disaffected segment of politics in general, of the parties and of the elections. Typically, citizens 18 or 19 years of age go to vote in their first opportunities, but then stop doing so. In this age group, there are the so-called millennials and centennials, digital, hyperconnected generations, with social values such as caring for the environment, but distrustful of politics in general.
Another of the key segments will be those between 35 and 49 years of age, who represent around 30% of the total register, people working, some with children in school, with mortgages and credits, motivated to be interested in what happens in their community and eventually go to vote. Normally they value stability, family and traditional values, so they respect hierarchies. Perhaps this is the segment that will be the most disputed in the campaign, and strategic to obtain electoral victory.
Finally, 3 out of 10 registered citizens are 50 years of age or older. The youngest are generation x, and those over 55 are the so-called baby boomers, a generation attached to even more traditional values than their predecessors.
Elections are used by citizens to support or punish the party in power. Morena starts with an advantage, but the campaign that will define who will be the next governor of the most populous state in the country is missing.